The global potash market in 2025 is at a turning point. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and growing demand from Brazil are driving significant shifts in fertilizer trade flows. With sanctions, trade barriers, and investment surges, the fertilizer sector is redefining its supply strategies.
Black Sea Becomes Fertilizer Epicentre
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has turned the Black Sea into a fertilizer battlefield. The port of Odessa, once a key export hub for grain and fertilizers, remains under heavy attack. Reports of “stolen grain” exports from occupied territories further complicate global trade flows.
Russia and Belarus, two of the world’s top potash suppliers, continue to face sanctions and logistics barriers. Lithuania blocked Belarusian fertilizer exports through the Baltic Sea, forcing the country to rely heavily on Russia for transport. Meanwhile, Finland’s closure of its border with Russia disrupted potash shipments even before new sanctions took effect.
Potash Supplies and BRICS Shift
Despite Western restrictions, BRICS countries are strengthening their position in the fertilizer trade. In 2024, Russia exported over 50% of its 63 million tonnes of fertilizers to BRICS markets. Brazil, in particular, emerged as the largest growth driver, with fertilizer imports rising from 10.18 million tonnes in early 2024 to 11.54 million tonnes in the same period of 2025.
Brazil’s hunger for fertilizers, especially potash, has attracted global investment. Eurochem invested $1 billion in a new phosphate facility, while Mosaic set up a major blending and distribution plant in Tocantins. These moves highlight Brazil’s growing role as the leading BRICS fertilizer hub.
Brazil Potash Project Gains Momentum
Brazil Potash’s Autazes Project is central to reducing the country’s import dependence. The company signed a strategic deal with Fictor Group to build power transmission infrastructure worth $200 million. This agreement trimmed nearly 8% of the project’s total capital costs and boosted investor confidence. Brazil expects its first domestic potash mine by 2029, which will change the balance of global supply.
Tariffs and Delays Hit North America
In North America, rising tariffs and cost blowouts are reshaping potash strategies. U.S. fertilizer affordability fell sharply, while Canada considers creating a potash reserve under its critical minerals framework. Meanwhile, BHP’s Jansen mine faced a $1.7 billion cost increase, delaying production until mid-2027.
Global Fertilizer Market Outlook
Potash remains one of the most reliable fertilizers compared to nitrogen and phosphate, which face disruptions from China’s export controls and Middle East conflicts. Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, continues to dominate global supply despite sanctions.
The global potash market in 2025 highlights three key trends:
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Geopolitical risks in the Black Sea are disrupting traditional trade routes.
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Brazil’s rising demand is pulling investments and shaping new supply chains.
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Western tariffs and sanctions are shifting potash flows toward BRICS nations.
As agriculture faces increasing pressure to secure fertilizer supplies, potash will remain at the center of global food security.
