The global fertilizer market outlook 2025 is undergoing major shifts as geopolitical tensions, sanctions, supply disruptions and project changes rewrite the global balance in potash, ammonia and phosphates. Hallgarten & Company’s November 2025 Growth Minerals Review highlights how global fertilizer flows face new uncertainty from Russia to East Africa.
Russia and Belarus Shake Up Global Potash Market
Russia’s Uralkali plans to boost MOP exports by 400,000 tonnes after completing facility repairs. However, Russia will enforce strict fertilizer export quotas from 31 December 2025 to 31 May 2026. The quota is set at 18.7 million tonnes, which may tighten global supplies.
China continues to restrict fertilizer exports, so Russia will likely ship more MOP to China and India.
Belaruskali faces deeper trouble. EU and US sanctions remain, while border tensions with Lithuania and Poland have intensified. Lithuania’s temporary border closure has blocked key rail routes. Without access to the port of Klaipėda, Belarus cannot return to the global seaborne MOP market.
These developments are central to the global fertilizer market outlook 2025, as both countries control a large share of global potash supply.
EU Fertilizer Strategy Shifts Away From Russia
The EU’s new “Global Gateway” program aims to secure grain routes from Ukraine. However, fertilizer supplies remain at high risk.
As Russian and Belarusian imports decline, the EU is shifting toward Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt for nitrogen and phosphates.
For more pricing insights, visit our DAP & MAP Prices page.
Frequent Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports continue to disrupt grain and fertilizer shipments. Ukrainian agriculture output fell 16.4% YoY in 2025.
Ammonia Shock After Nutrien Shutdown
Global ammonia markets turned volatile after Nutrien announced it would shut its nitrogen and ammonia plant in Trinidad & Tobago. The closure threatens 85,000 mt/month of ammonia production. Rising gas prices and port fee disputes worsened the situation.
In contrast, Guyana plans a new 300,000 t/yr ammonia-urea plant by 2028, using domestic gas under its national Gas-to-Energy strategy.
Phosphate and Potash Developers Gain Momentum
PhosCo in Tunisia announced major phosphate drilling results and secured €1 million in EBRD funding. The new discoveries support its plan to become a low-cost phosphate producer.
Brazil Potash secured its third long-term MOP offtake for the Autazes Project, covering almost 90% of future output.
East Africa Faces New Fertilizer Supply Risks
Political unrest in Tanzania after the 2025 election caused restrictions at the Dar es Salaam port. Cargo shifted to Mombasa, creating congestion during a peak agricultural season.
Saudi Arabia’s 30-year lease over Djibouti’s Port of Tadjourah strengthens its influence in the region and supports Ethiopia’s future potash ambitions.
These developments add more pressure to the Growth_Minerals_Review_Nov2025
