The Global Ammonia Market Outlook remains bullish in Q4 2025, as supply tightness and plant outages drive prices higher across key regions
Global Ammonia Market Outlook: Tampa Contract Hits Highest Since 2023
Industry leaders Yara and Mosaic settled the October Tampa contract at $590pt CFR, up $50pt from September’s level. This marks the highest settlement since late 2023, supported by firm spot prices in North Africa and Northwest Europe.
Mosaic is also importing spot cargoes to cover a turnaround at its Faustina, Louisiana plant (450,000t per year). Market sources confirmed that two tankers carrying 52,000t are heading to Tampa from the Caribbean.
Sorfert Strengthens FOB Sales to Europe
Algeria’s Sorfert secured higher prices in Europe amid tight Atlantic Basin supply. Deals included:
30,000t split cargo at $580pt FOB for late October and early November.
15,000t to Trammo at $565pt FOB.
15,000t to another buyer at $570pt FOB.
These sales immediately lifted supplier targets across Europe.
Saudi Outage Adds Pressure in Asia
The unplanned shutdown of a Saudi ammonia plant is expected to remove 300,000t from the market between August and year-end.
Reflecting this shortage, Trammo purchased a November cargo of 10–15,000t from Sabic Agri-Nutrients at $420pt FOB—a 25% increase on recent Saudi netbacks.
India and Southeast Asia Adjust
India continues to source discounted ammonia from Iran, keeping prices stable. However, non-sanctioned cargoes are expected around $450pt CFR, depending on discharge ports.
In Southeast Asia, the supply gap from Saudi Arabia is partly offset by Indonesia’s return to normal exports after maintenance, though regional turnarounds at chemical plants may limit availability.
Global Ammonia Market Outlook: Prices Stay Firm in Q4 2025
With tight supply, rising benchmarks, and firm European and Asian demand, the global merchant ammonia market remains bullish. Industry watchers expect prices to stay elevated through the end of 2025.
Analysts believe the Global Ammonia Market Outlook will remain firm into early 2026 as buyers in Europe and Asia compete for limited cargoes. With higher benchmark settlements and reduced Saudi exports, traders expect supply tightness to persist. This is likely to keep ammonia prices elevated, while India continues to rely on discounted Iranian volumes
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