Global Urea Prices Await India’s RCF Tender as Q4 Trade Reshapes

The global urea market entered mid-October with a cautious tone, as traders and producers closely watched India’s upcoming RCF urea tender scheduled for 15 October 2025.
The tender, seeking up to 2 million tonnes of urea for shipment by 10 December, is expected to set the price direction for Q4 fertilizer trade worldwide.

🔹 Global Price Overview

Prices remained stable to slightly lower across key exporting regions:

• Baltic Region: Prilled urea traded at $365–375/t FOB, while granular urea hovered around $375–384/t FOB. Brazil continues to be the main export destination, with some deals concluded at low-to-mid $380s/t FOB. Around 150,000t of Baltic cargoes are already nominated for India under its previous tender.

• Black Sea: Granular urea slipped to $390–405/t FOB. A small volume (5,000t) of Turkmen urea was sold at $390/t FOB, and a 10,000t lot to Ukraine at $430/t FOB, though this higher price was not widely confirmed.

• Middle East: Values tightened slightly to $385–395/t FOB, but market sentiment softened as unsold trader cargoes emerged. Producers are holding back sales until the RCF tender results are announced.

• Iran: Continued strong export activity, with producers selling about 200,000t of granular urea at $365–370/t FOB. Deals by MIS, Pardis, Lordegan, and Shiraz indicate steady price levels for October–November shipments.

• Egypt: Granular urea offered for European buyers at $430–440/t FOB. Trading volume was limited, though producers remain firm, expecting potential CBAM-related buying by late October.

• Nigeria: Dangote sold 30,000t at $400/t FOB Lekki for mid-October loading, consistent with previous sales. Indorama continues to focus on long-term contracts, leaving little room for spot activity.

• China: Domestic prilled urea prices fell to ¥1,560/t ex-works (≈$234/t FOB), reflecting sluggish local demand. No new export quotas have been confirmed, but nearly 855,000t of Chinese product are already nominated for India under the previous tender.

🇮🇳 India Urea Market Drives Global Sentiment

India remains the most influential player in the global urea market.
The RCF tender on 15 October is expected to attract offers from the Middle East, Iran, Southeast Asia, and the Baltic.

By the end of September, India’s urea stocks stood at 4.9 million tonnes, about 30% below last year’s levels.
As local sales remain sluggish, import tenders will be crucial to rebuild inventory ahead of the rabi season.

Traders estimate India could import 2.5–3 million tonnes more urea before year-end, depending on freight conditions and FOB offers from key exporters.

The tender outcome will likely set benchmark prices for Q4 and early 2026 contracts.

🇧🇷 Brazil Urea Market Holds Firm on Import Demand

In contrast to India’s cautious buying, Brazil’s urea market remains active.
Granular urea prices stayed at $415–435/t CFR, supported by a 5,000t deal at the upper end. Russian-origin cargoes traded around $420/t CFR.

Despite logistics congestion at major ports, Brazil may import up to 700,000 tonnes per month ahead of safrinha crop applications in Q1 2026.
This continued demand from Brazil provides a floor for global urea prices, especially for Middle Eastern and Russian suppliers.

🔹 Outlook: Tender-Driven Q4 Market

Global sentiment remains tied to India’s tender outcome.
A strong Indian purchase could tighten global supply and push FOB prices higher across the Middle East, Iran, and Russia.
If bids remain conservative, prices may continue stable or ease slightly through late October.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s ongoing import needs and limited Chinese exports are expected to prevent any sharp decline.

Overall, the global urea market appears well balanced but highly sensitive to tender outcomes, freight rates, and Q4 demand shifts.

📊 Summary Snapshot