India’s Urea Tender on 2 September to Shape Global Fertilizer Prices

The global urea market experienced continued downward pressure in late August 2025. Prices softened across most regions as buyers and sellers waited for the outcome of India’s upcoming 2 September urea tender, which is expected to shape September pricing trends and global trade flows.

Baltic: Pressure from Weak Brazilian Demand

In the Baltic region, prilled urea slipped to $425–450/t fob. The decline was mainly due to weaker demand from Brazil. A small sale to Latin America concluded at $450/t fob, while Brazil purchased at $433–443/t fob. Granular offers stood near $450–455/t fob, though buyers targeted closer to $430/t. Seven vessels (305,000t) are already nominated for India under the 4 August tender, signaling steady export flows.

Black Sea: Demand Remains Muted

The Black Sea market saw granular prices drop to $428–440/t fob. Romanian buyers pushed for sub-$430/t levels, but overall demand remained limited. Two vessels (30,000t each) are scheduled from Poti for India, keeping the region connected to Indian demand despite weak sentiment.

Middle East: Buyers Resist High Offers

In the Middle East, granular urea fell to $480–490/t fob. Some producers tested higher offers at $510/t fob, but buyers resisted, countering closer to $450/t. Nine vessels (409,000t) are nominated for India, underlining the region’s role as a key supplier.

Iran: Weighed Down by High Stocks

Iranian granular urea weakened further, reaching $400–415/t fob. Large inventories pressured the market, with offers mostly in the $405–420/t fob range. Lordegan announced a 40,000t tender for September loading, adding to available supply.

Egypt: Producers Waiting for India

Egyptian prices to Europe eased to $475–485/t fob. Producers held back volumes, preferring to wait for India’s tender outcome. NCIC floated a 5,000t tender, while vessels are lined up at Adabiya (45,000t) and Abu Qir (50,000t).

Algeria: Holding Back

Algerian producers continued to withhold supply, with Sorfert reportedly targeting $490/t fob and above, higher than current market levels.

East & Southern Africa: Competitive Offers

• East Africa received 32,000t from Qatar (Mombasa, 29 Aug) and 26,600t from China (Dar es Salaam, 1 Sept).

• At Beira, offers were heard at $585/t fca (~$535/t cfr).

• In South Africa, Iranian and Chinese granular offered at $470–480/t cfr, while Middle East cargoes were priced higher at $520–535/t cfr.

India: Market’s Focal Point

India is the center of attention. NFL’s tender closes 2 September, aiming to secure 2mn t by 31 October. Meanwhile, under IPL’s 4 August tender, 1.49mn t has already been nominated. Key suppliers include the Middle East, China, Baltic, Southeast Asia, and Egypt. The results of the September tender are expected to set the benchmark for global pricing.

China: Floor Prices for India Stay Firm

Chinese prilled urea offers ranged $400–470/t fob, but buyers showed little interest above $450/t. Granular offers for non-India markets were heard at $440–450/t fob. For India, floor prices remained firm at $490/t, highlighting China’s focus on higher-value markets.

Southeast Asia & Indonesia: Weak Demand

Demand in Southeast Asia stayed muted due to low crop prices and high inventories. Indonesia’s Kaltim closed a 45,000t tender, but bids came in at $430–455/t fob, well below its target of $498/t.

Brazil: Prices Slide Further

In Brazil, CFR values dropped to $455–475/t, down from $480/t last week. A 10,000t non-Chinese sale was fixed at $460/t cfr, but buyers expressed affordability concerns. Expectations of additional Chinese supply further pressured prices.

📉 Market Insight & Outlook

The global urea market remains under pressure, with prices sliding across most regions. The central factor is India’s 2 September tender, which could reset the market floor. If India secures volumes at lower prices, global values may weaken further in September. Conversely, any shortfall could temporarily support prices.

Overall, fundamentals remain bearish, with ample global supply, weak seasonal demand, and buyer resistance to higher offers. The next two weeks will be critical in determining price direction.