Nitrogen Operations Halt Continues With No Restart Date
The Nutrien Trinidad shutdown has entered its third week, with no restart plan announced. The closure threatens global ammonia and methanol supplies, especially for key agricultural markets already facing elevated input costs.
Farmers in North America are feeling the strain of high fertilizer prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Prices for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and potash remain firm, squeezing margins. Although many apply anhydrous ammonia in spring, others rely on it after fall harvest — making any supply disruption unwelcome.
Short-Term U.S. Supply Stable, But Global Risks Grow
According to Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, the shutdown poses limited short-term risk to U.S. farmers. “The U.S. produces nearly all of the anhydrous ammonia it uses,” Brown explained.
However, he cautioned that an extended shutdown could tighten global ammonia availability and lift domestic prices. “If global users pay more, domestic producers may raise prices,” he added. “Ammonia remains one of the cheapest nitrogen sources globally, so price upside exists.”
Nutrien Ltd., the world’s third-largest nitrogen producer, operates the affected Point Lisas facility in Trinidad and Tobago, the second-largest ammonia exporter to the U.S. after Canada. In 2024, Trinidad supplied about 37% of U.S. ammonia imports. Nutrien’s operations there typically produce 85,000 metric tons of ammonia and 55,000 MT of urea each month.
Industry analyst Josh Linville of StoneX estimates that one-third to one-half of U.S. ammonia imports originate from Trinidad. “Unexpected downtime and ongoing U.S. tariffs could threaten this crucial supply route,” Linville said.
By late October, anhydrous ammonia averaged $828 per ton at Illinois distributors, a 21% increase from $685 a year earlier, according to USDA data.
Dispute Over Port Fees Delays Restart
The shutdown stems from a standoff between Nutrien and Trinidad’s National Energy Company (NEC) over rising port charges. NEC reportedly wants to hike fees by up to 200% and apply them retroactively to 2020, according to Reuters. Other producers, including Methanex and Proman, face similar fee disputes that could limit their port access.
Nutrien began a controlled shutdown of its nitrogen operations on October 23, citing port access restrictions. The facility remains offline as the dispute continues. The company said it is working toward a resolution but has yet to identify a viable economic path to restart operations.
Limited Impact on 2025 Sales Forecast
In its third-quarter earnings report, Nutrien said its 2025 nitrogen sales guidance assumes no further output from Trinidad for the rest of the year. Still, it expects to remain within its annual sales target of 10.7–11.2 million metric tons, thanks to strong production from North American facilities.
CEO Ken Seitz told analysts that the company is “not assuming a shutdown into 2026” and is “working through” the port-related challenges. Nutrien added that unresolved issues include $28 million in retroactive port fees and concerns about a reliable natural gas supply.
Industry Eyes Supply Chain Stability
The Nutrien Trinidad shutdown underscores the fragile balance of global nitrogen supply. Any prolonged disruption could affect ammonia-dependent markets, particularly in regions that rely on imports from the Caribbean.
Despite these headwinds, Nutrien remains confident in meeting its 2025 production targets, supported by steady operations in the U.S. and Canada.