The Ministry of National Food Security & Research (MoNFS&R) has informed the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) that urea accounts for 65% of Pakistan’s total fertilizer consumption, making continuous local production crucial for national food security.
Pakistan currently has ten urea manufacturing plants with a combined production capacity of 6.6mn t/yr — sufficient to meet domestic demand if uninterrupted gas supply continues.
Gas Supply Challenges for SNGPL-Based Plants
Out of the ten urea plants:
| Gas Network | Number of Plants | Status | Annual Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mari Gas Field & SSGCL | 8 | Operate normally year-round | Majority |
| SNGPL | 2 (Fatima Fertilizer & Agritech) | Operate on RLNG since 2018 | 900,000t |
Since October 2018, Fatimafert and Agritech have relied on expensive RLNG, with operating decisions subject to ECC reviews. Their intermittent shutdowns have caused production losses that were offset through costly urea imports.
Stock Recovery Leads to Lower Domestic Prices
Continuous operations of both plants since April 2023 helped Pakistan rebuild buffer stocks:
Over 300,000t/month available
Domestic urea prices fell 8.4% since July 2024
→ From Rs 4,705 to Rs 4,311 per 50kg bagInternational urea prices up 14.1% in same period
Imported urea price as of 16 Oct 2025: Rs 7,275 per 50kg bag
→ Far higher than local pricing
These trends support farmers and reduce pressure on government subsidies.
Rabi 2025–26 Supply and Demand Outlook
If both SNGPL-based plants remain operational until 31 March 2026:
| Parameter | Volume |
|---|---|
| Opening stock | 1.148mn t |
| Domestic production | 3.251mn t |
| Total supply | 4.399mn t |
| Rabi demand | 3.486mn t |
| Monthly buffer stock | 300,000+t |
➡ Pakistan would maintain comfortable urea availability throughout the season.
Risk of Shortages if Gas Supply Stops
If operations cease after 30 October 2025:
401,000t production loss expected
Closing balance drops to 512,000t
Increased risk of shortages and price hikes in Kharif and Rabi 2026
Demand is expected to rise due to:
✔ Better farm profitability
✔ Interest-free loans
✔ Cash support by Punjab & Sindh governments
✔ Adoption of high-yield crop varieties
ECC Decision
MoNFS&R recommended uninterrupted gas supply to Fatimafert and Agritech until 31 March 2026.
However, after detailed discussions:
➡ ECC did not approve the extension
➡ Gas supply continuation will be reviewed again by 15 December 2025
➡ Petroleum Division supports extending operations only until 31 December 2025
MoNFS&R must resubmit the case evaluating:
Urea availability
Gas supply situation
Domestic production performance
Conclusion
Pakistan’s urea supply remains stable today, but future availability depends heavily on government approval for continuous gas supply to key SNGPL-based plants. Any disruption could risk affordability for farmers and pressure national food security.
