The India DAP stock decline extended into January as lower imports failed to match steady demand. Government data confirms this was the fourth consecutive monthly inventory draw. According to Argus estimates, India’s DAP stocks stood just below 1.9 million tonnes at the end of January. Therefore, the India DAP stock fell remains a key market concern.

India DAP Stock Decline Driven by Weak Imports

India imported only 70,000 tonnes of DAP in January. Meanwhile, domestic production stayed stable at 342,000 tonnes.

However, the combined supply could not offset strong consumption. As a result, the India DAP stock fell continued during the month.

Importers prioritised urea shipments earlier in the rabi season. Consequently, fewer berthing slots were available for DAP cargoes.

Strong January Sales Accelerate India DAP Stock Decline

Domestic DAP sales declined seasonally but remained robust. January sales reached 535,000 tonnes, almost 100,000 tonnes higher than the three-year average.

Farmers likely focused on urea in December and shifted DAP purchases to January. Therefore, demand recovery contributed to the ongoing India DAP stock decline.

Moreover, higher sowing acreage and early kharif preparations supported fertilizer offtake.

Rabi Season Trends Keep India DAP Stock Decline Intact

Total DAP sales in the rabi season starting October 2025 remain broadly unchanged year on year. However, weaker imports compared with last year caused a cumulative stock draw of 573,000 tonnes.

Hence, despite stable production, the India DAP stock fell persisted through the rabi season.

Fertilizer Year Dynamics Offer Partial Relief

Earlier in the fertilizer year, imports were stronger. India imported over 6 million tonnes of DAP during April–January, well above 4.4 million tonnes a year earlier.

Meanwhile, sales of about 8.5 million tonnes lagged last year by nearly 200,000 tonnes. Consequently, inventories remain higher year on year despite the recent India DAP stock fell .

TSP Demand Growth Balances Phosphatic Market

Combined DAP and TSP sales reached 9.14 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Domestic TSP offtake almost doubled during the period.

India relies entirely on imports for TSP supply, with Morocco remaining the sole source. Strong imports boosted TSP stocks by 563% since April 2024. Therefore, higher TSP availability may partially offset phosphatic supply risks.

Outlook for India DAP Stock Decline

The India DAP stock fell reflects strong demand and slower import arrivals. If import flows remain weak, inventory pressure could persist in the short term.

However, higher imports earlier in the year and stable production should prevent major shortages. Meanwhile, strong TSP stocks may support phosphatic fertilizer availability ahead of kharif.

Key Data Snapshot