India urea market is in focus this week as Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) prepares to open its urea import tender on 15 October. The tender seeks up to 2 million tonnes of urea for shipment by 10 December 2025.
According to trade sources, around 855,000 tonnes of Chinese urea and 150,000 tonnes from the Baltic region have already been nominated under India’s previous tender. However, local inventory remains tight. By the end of September, India’s urea stock stood at 4.9 million tonnes, about 30% below last year’s level.
Meanwhile, the Middle East and Iranian producers are holding prices steady, awaiting India’s next move. In the Middle East, FOB prices stayed between $385–395/t, while Iranian exporters sold around 200,000 tonnes at $365–370/t FOB.
Market players expect RCF’s tender to guide global trade flows through the final quarter of 2025. As India remains the largest global buyer, the tender results will influence freight rates, producer pricing strategies, and supply allocations across regions.
📈 Outlook:
Analysts believe India urea market could draw 2.5–3 million tonnes of urea imports by year-end to rebuild stock ahead of the rabi planting season. The RCF tender outcome will likely set the benchmark for Q4 fertilizer pricing trends.
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