The India Urea Market October 2025 shows that urea market is once again driving global sentiment. The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) tender for 2 million tonnes of urea, announced on 1 October, has boosted international demand and stabilized prices across key regions.
India Urea Market October 2025: Stocks Improve but Remain Below Last Year’s Levels
India’s urea stocks improved to 4.9 million tonnes by the end of September, up from 3.5 million tonnes in August. However, the level remains 30% lower than last year’s 6.8 million tonnes. The rise is mainly due to slower sales, not higher production.
Domestic urea production held steady at 2.43 million tonnes in September. Sales, meanwhile, slipped to around 2.5 million tonnes, compared to 3.1 million tonnes in the same month last year.
The RCF tender aims to bridge this supply gap before the rabi season. Bids will close on 15 October, and cargoes must load by 10 December. This timeline ensures timely arrivals before the main sowing period.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects above-normal rainfall, about 8% higher than the long-term average. This forecast supports stronger fertilizer demand in the coming quarter.
Government Interventions
To tackle localized shortages, the central government has allocated 40,000 additional tonnes of urea to Telangana. In Odisha’s Ganjam district, shortages continue, forcing farmers to buy at inflated rates of ₹600–₹700 per 45 kg bag, well above the MRP of ₹266.50.
Such regional disparities underline the importance of import coordination and timely distribution. State authorities have instructed Primary Agricultural Cooperative Societies (PACS) to handle distribution more effectively and curb black marketing.
Global Context: India’s Role in Market Stabilization
India’s buying interest has strengthened global prices.
China: Prilled urea at $380–390/t FOB, granular at $390–400/t FOB.
Middle East: Prices rose to $400–405/t FOB after India’s tender.
Egypt: Granular urea climbed to $435–445/t FOB post-tender.
Baltic and Black Sea regions: Firmed to $388–410/t FOB.
Brazil: CFR prices increased to $430–440/t as global sentiment turned bullish.
Suppliers are now cautious. Many prefer to delay new offers until the Indian tender results are clear.
Meanwhile, China plans to ease export restrictions and release around 7 million tonnes of urea. This move could benefit India but may also cool prices if supply exceeds demand.
Outlook: India Urea Market Update October 2025: Imports and Rainfall to Drive Q4 Demand
India’s RCF tender has stabilized the global urea market. Prices are likely to stay firm in the short term, supported by Indian imports and upcoming rabi demand.
However, risks remain. Any delay in shipments or surge in Chinese exports could pressure prices later in Q4. Smooth import logistics and balanced distribution will be key to preventing regional shortages.
FERTILIZERFIELD Analysis
India’s actions have redefined global urea flows. The RCF tender offers both relief and risk — relief for domestic shortages and risk of overdependence on imports.
A strong procurement strategy, transparent state allocation, and timely disbursement will decide how effectively India navigates the rest of 2025.
