The latest Pakistan DAP inventory update shows a sharp drop in national stocks as the high Rabi application season begins. Despite this decline, the country is still on track to finish the year with comfortable inventory levels, which will keep fresh imports limited through the rest of the quarter.
Pakistan opened the October–March Rabi season with 392,000t of DAP, supported by 75,000t of domestic production, according to NFDC data. These opening stocks sat well above the five-year average of 318,000t, giving the market a strong start.
Last month, Pakistan imported 117,000t of DAP, lower than the 2020–24 October average of 146,000t. Distributors already held healthy volumes, and importers avoided new buying after DAP CFR prices peaked in late August. No one wanted to get caught in a falling market.
Demand surged to 219,000t, the highest offtake of the year and in line with normal October activity. This strong consumption pushed inventories down to 361,000t, still above the historical average.
The high-demand period usually extends into November before slowing in December. Based on current stocks and NFDC estimates for production, imports, and consumption, national DAP inventories could fall to around 115,000t by the end of the year.
This projection also supports the latest Pakistan DAP inventory update, which indicates limited buying needs before year-end.
November offtake may underperform NFDC expectations. Farmer finances have improved but remain fragile, especially without the anticipated DAP subsidy for wheat. Farmers are unsure if the government will support wheat procurement at harvest next April, so they remain cautious with fertilizer spending.
Importers are already well covered for the rest of the year. New purchases will likely target Q1 off-season restocking. One 40,000t Moroccan cargo is scheduled to arrive in January under a formula-based deal.
