The global fertilizer supply system has adjusted to major disruptions in the Middle East, preventing an immediate worldwide food crisis despite a sharp decline in fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Urea imports from countries that traditionally ship through the strategic waterway fell by about 85% from pre-conflict levels, according to trade data cited by the International Trade Centre (ITC). However, global import volumes declined by only around 6%, as alternative suppliers increased shipments by more than a quarter.
Alternative suppliers fill fertilizer supply gap
The disruption has encouraged fertilizer buyers to turn to suppliers outside the Gulf region. Egypt and Nigeria increased their urea exports by 98% and 81%, respectively, according to ITC data.
The United States and Russia also increased their shares in several key fertilizer markets, while China expanded its export activity. The shift highlights how quickly global fertilizer trade can adapt when established supply routes become difficult to access.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the ITC, said supply chains had adjusted and new suppliers had emerged, but warned that the disruption had increased costs. For many developing economies, the challenge has increasingly moved from securing physical fertilizer supplies to being able to afford them.
Hormuz remains critical for fertilizer trade
Before the conflict, around one-third of globally traded nitrogen fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, moved through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway was also a major route for globally traded sulphur, an important raw material used in phosphate fertilizer production.
Nitrogen, phosphate and potassium are the three primary nutrients required for commercial crop production. Any prolonged disruption to nitrogen fertilizer supplies could therefore have significant implications for agricultural production and food markets.
Fertilizer prices remain under pressure
The supply-chain adjustment has not prevented fertilizer prices from rising sharply.
ITC data showed that the average import cost of urea during the second quarter of 2026 increased by about 70% year-on-year. Ammonia and sulphur prices also recorded substantial increases during the period.
India experienced particularly high urea prices earlier in the year. Benchmark urea prices reached almost $950 per tonne in May, before falling by more than half to approximately $400 per tonne, according to fertilizer consultancy CRU.
The decline provides some relief to buyers, although fertilizer markets remain vulnerable to further geopolitical disruptions and changes in supply availability.
Egypt and Nigeria strengthen urea exports
Egypt has become an important source of additional urea supplies. Producers including Abu Qir Fertilizers, MOPCO, Egyptian Basic Industries Corporation and Egyptian Fertilizers Company increased exports during the period.
Nigeria has also expanded its role in the international fertilizer market. Dangote Fertiliser, supported by its approximately 3-million-tonne-per-year urea production capacity, has become an increasingly important supplier to global markets.
China has also recorded growth in export capacity, although Chinese shipments were not included in the ITC data cited in the analysis.
Impact varies across major fertilizer-importing countries
The impact of the supply disruption has been uneven across markets.
Brazil, a major exporter of soybeans, sugar and maize, experienced a 56% increase in the cost of imported urea and a 176% increase in sulphur import costs. Its fertilizer import volumes also declined by more than one-third.
Several African countries face particularly high exposure because of their dependence on suppliers using the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, more than 70% of urea imports into South Africa, Kenya and Mozambique came from suppliers connected to the route.
The high concentration of supply sources leaves these markets vulnerable to disruptions and higher procurement costs.
Fertilizer costs could threaten crop yields
The immediate adjustment in international fertilizer trade has helped prevent a major global supply shortage. However, sustained high fertilizer costs could create longer-term challenges for farmers and food producers.
CRU fertilizer analyst Willis Thomas said the global trading system had helped avert a major food crisis in the near term, but higher fertilizer costs could remain a problem over a longer period.
Phosphate prices are also proving difficult to reduce. While farmers can temporarily use less phosphate fertilizer, prolonged under-application can eventually affect crop yields.
Global fertilizer market faces uncertain outlook
The latest developments demonstrate the resilience of the global fertilizer supply network, but they also highlight its vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions.
Alternative suppliers have been able to increase exports, helping compensate for lower shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, higher transportation costs, elevated fertilizer prices and concentrated supply chains remain significant risks for fertilizer-importing countries.
For developing economies, particularly those heavily dependent on imported nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the affordability of fertilizer could become as important as physical availability in determining future agricultural production and food security.
